Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 17:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
No 96.2%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto18 nov 22, 22:55 UTC1 gen 28, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu be found guilty in any of the existing bribery/fraud cases?
Manifold MarketsBen Roberts-Smith found guilty of war crimes before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Andrew Tate be found guilty of any of the charges he was detained for on the 29th of December 2022
Manifold MarketsSPLC found guilty in 2026?
PolymarketWill Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This resolves "Yes" if the named individual is found guilty in court.
- If there is no court judgement but I am 99% confident that they have done fraud (eg credible accusations with evidence from credible sources).
- There will be an open survey with at least the options "Yes" and "Not enough information" .
- If 70% of people answer "Yes" then this market will resolve "Yes".
- This survey cannot be repeated for 3 months.
- If the market doesn't resolve "Yes", it resolves "No" at close date.
