Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 04:28 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
No 61.9%
Previsori
28
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto9 gen 23, 18:13 UTC1 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?
Manifold MarketsWill Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiNext Israeli Minister of Defense?
PolymarketRegole
Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.