Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 67.7%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto5 gen 26, 16:44 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the USA control Greenland by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsVenezuela leader end of 2026?
PolymarketWho will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KalshiMaría Corina Machado enters Venezuela by which date?
PolymarketFree & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsVenezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the USA controls Venezuela by December 31, 2026. "Control" is defined as the Trump administration's stated objective of running the country until a political transition occurs.
- Resolution will be determined by whether the US maintains effective administrative and military control over Venezuelan territory and governance, as evidenced by:
- Continued US military presence and operational authority in Venezuela
- US direction of Venezuelan government functions and policy
- US control over Venezuelan oil infrastructure and resource extraction
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will USA “control” Venezuela by year's end??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 68% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will USA “control” Venezuela by year's end??
- Will USA “control” Venezuela by year's end? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will USA “control” Venezuela by year's end??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria