Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will USA “control” Venezuela by year's end??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 67.7% al 29 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will USA “control” Venezuela by year's end??

Will USA “control” Venezuela by year's end? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti

Dati al 29 ott 2026, 12:49 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 67.7%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato ieri

Obsoleto

5 gen 26, 16:44 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the USA controls Venezuela by December 31, 2026. "Control" is defined as the Trump administration's stated objective of running the country until a political transition occurs.
Resolution will be determined by whether the US maintains effective administrative and military control over Venezuelan territory and governance, as evidenced by:
Continued US military presence and operational authority in Venezuela
US direction of Venezuelan government functions and policy
US control over Venezuelan oil infrastructure and resource extraction