Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 98%
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 51 minuti fa
In ritardo8 nov 24, 00:33 UTC20 ago 28, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWill Trump’s second presidential term NOT end exactly on January 20, 2029, due to war, emergency, impeachment, or other
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Bongbong Marcos declare martial law in his first presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
PolymarketLula to finish his presidential term?
FutuurRegole
Resolution Criteria:
- TL;DR, will Trump be POTUS for ≥42 months and <43 months? Most of these criteria points are covering the corner cases.
- If I missed a corner case, and it happens, market resolves to best judgement.
- Struck-through items are no longer relevant and can be ignored.
- Assume EST time zones for all dates and times. "Exactly 42 months" is defined as the market window from Jul 20, 2028 to Aug 19, 2028, conservatively allowing until 11:59pm on the last day.
- If the inauguration is somehow delayed past Jan 20, 2025 by any number "n" days, shift these dates forward by n days.
