Will Trump’s second presidential term NOT end exactly on January 20, 2029, due to war, emergency, impeachment, or other
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneGeopoliticaRussia / Ucraina2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 16:20 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 74.6%
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9
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Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto5 gen 26, 08:22 UTC21 gen 29, 11:59 UTC
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Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election and is serving his second presidential term, which under normal constitutional rules should end exactly at 12:00 PM (noon) on January 20, 2029, as defined by the 20th Amendment.
- This market resolves YES if Trump’s second term does not end exactly at that time, for any reason, including the term being extended, shortened, suspended, or otherwise altered.
- In other words, this market asks whether anything abnormal happens to prevent the term from ending exactly on schedule.
- Events that trigger a YES resolution (non-exhaustive)
- Any of the following count as YES, provided they legally affect the term’s end:
- War or armed conflict used to justify continuation or suspension of normal constitutional processes
