Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USA2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 50%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto30 gen 26, 13:19 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Alberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsScottish independence referendum called?
KalshiWill the Greenlandic Parliament pass a resolution by November 15 to schedule a national independence referendum?
Manifold MarketsWill Greenland hold an independence referendum in 2026?
PredictItWill there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Prior to the official conclusion of any Alberta independence referendum, will there be verified evidence that the U.S. federal government under President Donald Trump took intentional actions to influence the referendum’s outcome, legitimacy, or conduct.
- For this question, “influence” means intentional actions by U.S. federal officials or their agents that go beyond routine diplomatic contact and are reasonably expected to affect:
- • voter preferences or turnout • the perceived legitimacy or fairness of the referendum • the timing, conduct, or administration of the referendum • the political or economic context in Alberta explicitly in relation to referendum outcomes
- Resolution criteria
- The question resolves YES if, before the referendum concludes, one or more of the following is established:
- A formal finding or public conclusion by a credible Canadian authority (e.g. Government of Canada, Elections Canada, RCMP, CSIS, or a provincial inquiry) that U.S. federal officials acted to influence the referendum.
