Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 74.5%
Previsori
33
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto9 nov 23, 15:51 UTC1 gen 51, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2050?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will have walked on Mars, when there are 100 people on it?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will have walked on the Moon, when there are 100 people on it?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
If any companies or countries gets 100 people or more to be on mars and alive by the end of 2050 this will resolve as a YES.
- If there is less than 100, it will resolve as NO.
- Any crashes or corpses will not be inuded in the final head count.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 75% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050??
- Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2051.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: If any companies or countries gets 100 people or more to be on mars and alive by the end of 2050 this will resolve as a YES.