Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 88.9%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto10 lug 26, 02:19 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be at least 1 death due to political unrest on Oct 14, 2026 in the USA?
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KalshiWill Ilhan Omar be a Member of Congress at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?
KalshiWill another member of the U.S Congress be expelled before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Guess if more than one sitting member of Congress no longer be alive before the end of the day December 31, 2026?
- Update 2026-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only deaths occurring from the market posting date onward will count toward resolution.
- Deaths that occurred before the market was created (e.g., Doug LaMalfa and David Scott) are not included.
Mercati aperti
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,1 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,6 Mln €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 984,1K €
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be a death of more than one member of Congress in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 89% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be a death of more than one member of Congress in 2026??
- Will there be a death of more than one member of Congress in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be a death of more than one member of Congress in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Guess if more than one sitting member of Congress no longer be alive before the end of the day December 31, 2026?