Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 66.9%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 47 minuti fa
In ritardo10 apr 25, 18:10 UTC1 gen 35, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Manifold MarketsRepublicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Hungary in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRegole
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if a civil war breaks out in Turkey at any point between now and December 31, 2034.
- For the purposes of this market, a "civil war" is defined as an armed conflict within Turkey that:
- Results in at least 1,000 battle-related deaths within a 12-month period
- Involves organized armed groups fighting against the Turkish government or against each other
- Is recognized as a civil war by major international organizations (such as the UN) or by multiple credible conflict monitoring organizations
