Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 51.3%
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto11 giu 25, 20:18 UTC21 gen 29, 11:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill the US withdraw from the 1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
The pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal:
- https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/trump-administration-launches-review-biden-era-defense-pact-with-australia-uk-2025-06-11/
- Resolves YES if the US withdraws from the pact, or substantially downgrades its involvment in it, while Trump is president.
- As this could easily fall into a grey zone, I will not place any bet in this market.
- If the outcome is ambiguous, I will rely on a combination of sources and trader input to determine whether the Trump administration effectively "withdrew the US from AUKUS".
