Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 56.6%
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto29 mar 26, 14:55 UTC15 gen 27, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027?
Manifold MarketsFederal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027?
Manifold MarketsComprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?
KalshiWill any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria (strict):
- Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31 23:59:59 ET, the U.S. President signs into law a federal statute where AI is a primary subject.
- Executive orders, agency guidance, draft bills, committee approvals, or state laws do NOT count.
- If no qualifying federal AI statute is signed by deadline, resolves NO.
- Primary sources:
- Congress.gov final bill status
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 57% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026??
- Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 15 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria (strict):