Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 22:17 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 53%
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15
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto29 mar 26, 14:55 UTC15 gen 27, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US pass federal legislation with the purpose of increasing the country's TFR by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsComprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?
PolymarketWill any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsFederal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsComprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria (strict):
- Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31 23:59:59 ET, the U.S. President signs into law a federal statute where AI is a primary subject.
- Executive orders, agency guidance, draft bills, committee approvals, or state laws do NOT count.
- If no qualifying federal AI statute is signed by deadline, resolves NO.
- Primary sources:
- Congress.gov final bill status