Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?
One-OffRegolamentazioneTecnologia2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 57.8%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto28 apr 23, 13:54 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 to track stocks and flows of cutting-edge chips over a specific capability threshold and requires a license for assembling large masses of such chips.
- The policy aims to improve visibility into potentially dangerous clusters of compute, and ensure the effectiveness of other compute governance measures.
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
