Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Operazioni societarie IAOne-OffRegolamentazione Business e aziende3a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban) 60%

In testa tra 3 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

0.0 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 ora fa

In ritardo

13 set 26, 23:16 UTC1 gen 30, 00:00 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

roon (OpenAI), Sep 12 2026: "i won't lie to you, i think open source will be banned before too long after some major disaster. and when the day comes, you'll agree with me. i hope kimi and deepseek etc keep making models but keep them monitored on an api where they should be."

A reply argued the ban is what closed labs need: they're unprofitable, need to IPO, and need the government to hand them a monopoly via regulation.
This market tests both claims.
Answers are independent and resolve separately.
Answer 1: the named outcome
Resolves YES if, on or before Dec 31, 2029, the US federal government enacts a statute, executive order, or final agency rule that prohibits the public release of model weights for general-purpose AI models, either outright or above a capability/compute threshold.

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Operazioni societarie IAOne-OffRegolamentazione Business e aziende3a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban) 60%

In testa tra 3 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

0.0 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 ora fa

In ritardo

13 set 26, 23:16 UTC1 gen 30, 00:00 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

A reply argued the ban is what closed labs need: they're unprofitable, need to IPO, and need the government to hand them a monopoly via regulation.
This market tests both claims.
Answers are independent and resolve separately.
Answer 1: the named outcome
Resolves YES if, on or before Dec 31, 2029, the US federal government enacts a statute, executive order, or final agency rule that prohibits the public release of model weights for general-purpose AI models, either outright or above a capability/compute threshold.

Domande frequenti

Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does??: Manifold Markets quota IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban) al 60% al 28 settembre 2026.
Quando si risolve Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does??: Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
Come viene liquidato Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does??: Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: roon (OpenAI), Sep 12 2026: "i won't lie to you, i think open source will be banned before too long after some major disaster. and when the day comes, you'll agree with me. i hope kimi and deepseek etc keep making models but keep them monitored on an api where they should be."

Usa questo mercato nel codice o in un agente IA

JSON gratuito per questo mercato, senza chiave API:

https://api.coinrithm.com/api/prediction-markets/events/manifold/will-the-us-ban-openweight-ai-model

Agenti IA: chiama pm_data_event sul server MCP di CoinRithm:

https://mcp.coinrithm.com/mcp

Documentazione dell'API dati Collega un agente

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Domande frequenti

Usa questo mercato nel codice o in un agente IA

Mercati aperti

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

OpenAI IPO by which date?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Anthropic IPO by which date?