Will the Supreme Court hear a case disputing the 2028 Presidential Election, and how will they rule?
Politica2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 18:26 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo, SCOTUS will rule on no such case 73.5%In testa tra 3 esiti
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto23 nov 25, 19:14 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
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KalshiRegole
This market will resolve to one of the three listed outcomes based on whether and how the Supreme Court of the United States rule on a case disputing the top-of-the-ticket outcome of the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
- The case must actually reach SCOTUS and get resolved in a manner somewhat legally analogous to the 2000 election case of Bush v.
- Obviously, that case was regarding the Florida Supreme Court's ongoing recount order, but this market doesn't require that exact type of scenario.
- It does require that the case has the direct theoretical potential to alter the outcome of the presidential election, one way or the other.
- Gore 2000 would have resolved "the named outcome" because the recount could theoretically have swung the whole election if it had continued.
- Note that if it is truly ambiguous which way the ruling goes re: party favorability, then whichever party's candidate holds the office of the presidency on January 21st 2029 will be considered the "winner." A case which regards the election but does not credibly create a path to reverse or otherwise determine its outcome will not be considered for Yes, even if it is still very dramatic.
