Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 61.9% al 23 ottobre 2026.

Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 61.9%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 10 ore fa

Obsoleto

8 set 25, 18:18 UTC31 dic 29, 19:13 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Will the SCOTUS agree to hear a case about CFTC pre-emption wrt to prediction markets / events contracts by 2030?

The case can be about Kalshi or any other event contract venue.
The spirit of the market intends to resolve on the issue of whether or not state sports betting laws will be pre-empted, but in the interest of avoiding rules issues, any preemption case about PMs will do.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if, by market close, the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in a case where the Questions Presented include whether federal law (e.g., the Commodity Exchange Act) preempts state gambling laws as applied to prediction markets/event contracts, and the Court holds oral argument (including in a consolidated case).
Summary dispositions without argument and emergency applications on the shadow docket do NOT count.