Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 99%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto23 giu 26, 05:46 UTC31 dic 26, 23:20 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who will attend Aella’s plzdontkillus
Manifold MarketsWill Aella publish an insider account of Thiel's Dialog conferences/"secret society"?
Manifold MarketsElbaf Megathread (Answers will resolve as they occur)
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
KalshiRegole
The Aella market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Aella/a-major-publication-is-doing-a-prof)
- This market resolves YES if the above market resolves YES.
- If that market resolves NA or to a partial percentage, this resolves NO.
- If anything weird happens, the spirit of this market is to depend on the Aella market's final resolution, not any temporary accidental resolutions or anything like that.
Mercati aperti
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 30,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 18K €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Volume totale
- 8,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7K €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 15,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume totale
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume totale
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Volume totale
- 136,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 419 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the linked Aella market resolve YES??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the linked Aella market resolve YES??
- Will the linked Aella market resolve YES? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will the linked Aella market resolve YES??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The Aella market: