Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?
RegolamentazioneTecnologiaOne-Off2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 69.1%
Previsori
281
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 minuti fa
25 apr 25, 20:31 UTC1 gen 27, 00:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Any country will/have launched a nuke and non-human intelligence will or have disabled it by 2030
Manifold MarketsSpaceX’s Market Cap end of November 2026?
PolymarketMeta’s Market Cap end of October 2026?
PolymarketNvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
PolymarketOpenAI’s valuation end of November 2026?
PolymarketSpace datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029
Manifold MarketsRegole
Elon Musk has been very explicit in promising a robotaxi launch in Austin in June with unsupervised full self-driving (FSD).
- We'll give him some leeway on the timing and say this counts as a YES if it happens by the end of August.
- As of April 2025, Tesla seems to be testing this with employees and with supervised FSD and doubling down on the public Austin launch.
- PS: A big monkey wrench no one anticipated when we created this market is how to treat the passenger-seat safety monitors.
- See FAQ9 for how we're trying to handle that in a principled way.
- Tesla is very polarizing and I know it's "obvious" to one side that safety monitors = "supervised" and that it's equally obvious to the other side that the driver's seat being empty is what matters.
