Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 63%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto11 set 23, 10:56 UTC1 gen 27, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Resolves YES if the French national railway operator SNCF (or any legal structure that is clearly a successor of current day SNCF) operates 15 or more permanent night train lines, concurrently, at any time before Jan 1st 2027.
- I reserve the right to N/A on ambiguity after discussion in the comment.
- A line qualifies if it has a different terminus than all other operating lines, and if it operates year-long on a regular schedule (does not need to be daily, but does need more than weekly, and not only in the summer/winter).
- Night train lines qualify if they are labeled as such, and contain sleeping accommodation (not just a very late train)
- There is currently 6 SNCF operated night train lines (all of them of course qualify under the aforementioned criteria) with plan for another one opening in 2023.
- This is up from 2 in the 2010's but down from double digit numbers in the 60-70's
Mercati aperti
Europe
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-3.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 494,6K €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-3.0pt84.2%
- Yes+3.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 809,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 123,4K €
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+0.5pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.4pt1%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3122%
- October 31+2.0pt10%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 altri esiti
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 63% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027??
- Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will SNCF operates 15+ night train line before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if the French national railway operator SNCF (or any legal structure that is clearly a successor of current day SNCF) operates 15 or more permanent night train lines, concurrently, at any time before Jan 1st 2027.