Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?
PoliticaGeopolitica3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 03:37 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNot on NATO area/Not at all 70%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto23 mag 25, 16:15 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first European NATO member state that Russia attacks and/or occupies between May 23, 2025, and December 31, 2029.
- An "attack" is defined as a military assault involving Russian armed forces crossing into the territory of a NATO member state. "Occupation" refers to Russian forces establishing control over any part of a NATO member state's territory.
- The market will resolve based on credible reports from reputable news organizations or official government statements confirming such an event.
- If no such attack or occupation occurs by the end of 2029, the market will resolve to "the named outcome."
- Tensions between Russia and NATO have escalated in recent years, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
