Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
US PoliticsOne-Off2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 72.8%
Previsori
38
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto8 gen 25, 16:43 UTC1 feb 29, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
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FutuurRegole
This will be resolved based on my judgement of the vibes of top Rationalist voices in 4 years.
- If through their Tweets and Substack posts, I get the sense that they are unhappy with Trump's reforms, and that what got done was extremely damaging, vastly outweighs any benefits, and was worse than what other post WWII presidents have done, then I will resolve YES.
- Otherwise, NO.
- EDIT: This would be judged from 1960 with JFK (68 years before 2028).
- Market will be resolved seriously, even though it is a parody of https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-prominent-rationalists-judge-t#63ou9fccnl4.
- I will try to be as fair and objective as possible.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 73% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years??
- Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This will be resolved based on my judgement of the vibes of top Rationalist voices in 4 years.