Previsione della comunità attuale
No 91.1%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto14 mar 26, 21:10 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What is the next country to leave European Union:?
Manifold MarketsWill Hungary leave the European Union by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a second member state leave the European Union by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Italy be a member state of the European Union by the start of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Union (EU) block X (Twitter) in 2026?
FutuurWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Poland officially completes its withdrawal from the European Union (per Article 50 of the TEU) before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution requires either a ratified withdrawal agreement or the expiration of the two-year notification period.
- The market resolves to NO if Poland remains a member state through December 31, 2029.
- Market Background: The 2026 Crisis
- While the 2023 elections brought a pro-EU coalition to power under Donald Tusk, the political landscape shifted dramatically following the June 2025 Presidential Election.
