Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 67%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto7 set 26, 16:27 UTC31 dic 40, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsNASA lands on the moon?
KalshiWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRegole
resolves NO when P vs NP is resolved or YES when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first
- resolution of P vs NP is a proof or disproof of P≠NP accepted by the mathematical community
- man lands on Mars when a live human body is separated from the Mars surface only by like a solid thing, such as a spaceship or spacesuit (edit: or both of course, but touching each other)
Mercati aperti
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 67% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars??
- Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2040.
- Come viene liquidato Will P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: resolves NO when P vs NP is resolved or YES when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first