Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 82.6%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
30 lug 26, 13:44 UTC1 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWill Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
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Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketWill the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Friedrich Merz is the official Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler) of Germany at any point on January 1, 2027, according to official government sources.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be the official portal of the Federal Chancellor (https://www.bundeskanzler.de) or the Federal Government of Germany (https://www.bundesregierung.de).
- In the event of a delay in updating these websites, credible international news outlets (such as Deutsche Welle, Reuters, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify who holds the office on that date.
- Note on acting chancellors: If Friedrich Merz is serving as an acting (geschäftsführender) Chancellor on January 1, 2027 (e.g., following a vote of no confidence or the collapse of a coalition), this market will still resolve to YES, provided he has not officially stepped down or been replaced by a successor sworn in by the Federal President.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 83% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027??
- Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria