Will MAGA represent more than 20% of the electorate after January 2029?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneMedio OrienteCriminalità e giustizia2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 75.3%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto13 mar 26, 22:36 UTC31 gen 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be 30+ Palestine protestors in the US Capitol building at any time before Jan 20th 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Manifold Marketswill trump be assasinated in US?
Manifold Markets[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketNetanyahu arrested by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Like other political movements before it, such as Occupy Wall Street and The Tea Party, will MAGA stop having political influence after the new president takes office?
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by January 2029, MAGA supporters represent more than 20% of the U.S. electorate based on publicly available polling data.
- Resolution will be determined by major polling organizations (Gallup, Pew Research Center, Rasmussen, or similar) that measure self-identification with the MAGA movement.
- If multiple polls exist at the resolution date, the average of the most recent polls will be used.
- The market resolves NO if MAGA support falls to 20% or below.
