Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 80%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto20 mar 26, 07:38 UTC31 dic 30, 07:34 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Joe Biden live to see Luffy find the One Piece?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden live to see the opening of his Presidential Center?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
PolymarketWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
PolymarketRegole
Closes at signing of a ceasefire or treaty by both the US and whomever is in charge of Iran by that point, or if Biden kicks the bucket.
Mercati aperti
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 693K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,1 Mln €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9K €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7K €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 80% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war??
- Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will Joe Biden live to see the end of the US-Iran war??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Closes at signing of a ceasefire or treaty by both the US and whomever is in charge of Iran by that point, or if Biden kicks the bucket.