Will JD Vance integrate rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028?
7.4 pt (24h)One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticaIA1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 68.7%-7.4ptIn testa tra 3 esiti
Previsori
25
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-7.4 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
9 nov 24, 15:37 UTC17 gen 28, 06:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
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This market assesses the likelihood that JD Vance will play a meaningful role in helping individuals associated with rationalist blogging, 𝕏, or similar intellectual communities attain formal influence within high levels of U.S. government or policy-making circles by 2028.
- Terms for the Market
- Notable Integration:
- Integration requires rationalist bloggers to gain substantial influence in official roles, formal advisory capacities, or have recognized policy impact facilitated by JD Vance’s direct involvement or endorsement.
- Casual acknowledgments or public discussions do not meet this threshold.
- Qualifying Political Figure: