Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 53.7%
Previsori
29
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto3 giu 24, 09:34 UTC1 gen 41, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiWill China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Criteria for Resolution:
- Democracy Definition: Iran must undergo significant political changes resulting in a form of government characterized by free and fair elections, protection of civil liberties, political pluralism, and the rule of law.
- Verification of Democratic Status:
- - Free and Fair Elections: Iran must hold national elections that are widely recognized as free and fair by reputable international organizations, such as the United Nations, the European Union, or credible NGOs like Freedom House or the Carter Center.
- - Civil Liberties: There must be substantial evidence of the protection of civil liberties, including freedom of speech, press, assembly, and religion, as reported by reputable human rights organizations.
- - Political Pluralism: Multiple political parties must be able to operate without undue restriction, and opposition parties must have a genuine chance to compete for power.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 54% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040??
- Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2041.
- Come viene liquidato Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Criteria for Resolution: