Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 68.9%
Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto4 mag 26, 17:16 UTC31 mar 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will China alumina production exceed 85 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Guinea bauxite exports exceed 140 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill US Natural Gas Production exceed 3,450,000 million cubic feet in August 2026?
ForecastExWill Year-over-year US Industrial Production exceed -6.5 in December 2026?
ForecastExRegole
This market resolves YES if Indonesia's primary aluminum (smelter output) production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceeds 1.5 million tonnes.
- Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 ESDM monthly output print (which publishes with a ~1-2 month lag) is available before resolution.
- Indonesia is one step further down the supply chain from alumina: bauxite -> alumina -> primary aluminum.
- Domestic primary aluminum capacity comes mostly from Inalum's Kuala Tanjung smelter (~250-300 kt/yr) plus expansion projects under the post-2023 industrial-localisation push.
- Crossing 1.5 Mt for calendar 2027 would represent a meaningful ramp from the ~250 kt 2023 baseline and would suggest the bauxite-to-smelter strategy is producing real material rather than just intermediate alumina.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
