Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 09:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 53.3%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto30 lug 26, 17:35 UTC1 set 28, 23:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?
KalshiWill members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?
Manifold MarketsDuring this decade (2020s) which stocks will outperform the S&P 500?📊 📈💰🤑💳
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?
Manifold MarketsFirst to list tokenized stocks in the US?
PolymarketTokenized stocks available on Coinbase by which date?
PolymarketRegole
I'm broadly an index-fund investor, but both of the times I've believed particularly strongly that I should buy a particular stock at a particular moment (Nvidia after the Deepseek moment, SK Hynix yesterday), it seems to have worked out well for me.
- I've invested a bit in other individual stocks and I'm sure I've beaten the market overall with those as well but during my time investing it has largely been a bull market so I don't put much stock (heh) in that.
- From market close 08/28/26 to market close 09/01/28 I will track the performance of the S&P 500 vs the performance of my non-index investments, expressed in annual average return.
- This market resolves NO if the former offers a better return over that time, YES if the latter does.
- The title refers to individual stock trading, but if I decide at some point to trade options or invest in other assets, their performance would be included as well.
- I will include cash-on-hand that is not part of my checking account or emergency fund as part of my non-index investments for calculating return purposes.
