Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Gwern publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026??

Manifold Markets quota No al 87.3% al 24 ottobre 2026.

Will Gwern publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 87.3%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 ora fa

In ritardo

18 set 24, 16:33 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolution Criteria:

The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Gwern publishes a standalone book available in print form before December 31, 2026
The book is authored solely by Gwern and is not part of a collection including works from multiple authors
The market will resolve as "No" if:
Gwern does not publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026