Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 10:30 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 93.6%
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31
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto8 apr 22, 22:06 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the UK abolish the Monarchy before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Universal Studios Great Britain open before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
KalshiWill Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2030?
Manifold MarketsNorthern Ireland Assembly election winner?
KalshiRegole
This market resolves Yes if the state known as or formally known as the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolishes its monarchy and becomes a republic before 0:00 1 January 2030.
- Whether other Commonwealth countries continue to have monarchs from the line of Queen Elizabeth II is irrelevant.
- Should any constituent country of the UK leave the union before this point, the question refers only to the rump state rather than to the seceding state.
- The question will resolve ambiguously should the successor state of the current UK become impossible to clearly identify.
- #UK #Politics
