KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 77%
Qualità del mercato
45 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
823 €
Liquidità
1,1K €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
13.0% / 22.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
13 set 26, 20:00 UTC1 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
KalshiWill there be a border poll in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2040?
Manifold MarketsNorthern Ireland Assembly Elections: Most seats
SmarketsGeorgia vs. Northern Ireland
PolymarketRegole
If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Mercati aperti
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+1 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum??
- Kalshi quota No al 77% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum??
- Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.