Will Gitmo or Cecot transition from concentration camps to full blown extermination camps by the 2028 US election?
PoliticaOne-OffSalute e medicinaElezioneCriminalità e giustizia2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 19 ott 2026, 17:17 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 82%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 52 minuti fa
In ritardo1 apr 25, 22:46 UTC4 nov 28, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Gitmo here means all detention centres in US controlled Guantanamo Bay.
- Cecot here means the Centre for Confinement of Terrorism in El Salvador.
- Being a full blown extermination camp here means that there is verified evidence in mainstream media that >10% of US deportees sent there have been killed or sentenced to death, with killing including not only direct execution but also deaths from overworking, neglect, starvation, and disease where it is intentionally brought about by the operators of the facilities.
- Update 2025-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing:
- Initial Resolution: An initial resolution will be made soon after the market close date to avoid locking up mana unnecessarily.
- Re-resolution: The market will be re-resolved if new, verified, reputable evidence emerges after the initial resolution.
