Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 90.4%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto18 lug 26, 05:42 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?
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KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if exactly four humans, and no other parties, are officially awarded the Fields Medal in the calendar year 2030.
- It resolves to NO if this is not the case (in the calendar year 2030) for any reason.
- For example, this market will resolve NO if any AI model is awarded the medal in 2030, or if no medals are awarded in 2030.
- The Fields Medal is awarded every four years by the International Mathematical Union (IMU) during the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM).
- According to the IMU statutes, the selection committee is instructed to choose at least two and no more than four Fields Medalists under the age of 40, with a strong preference for awarding exactly four medals.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 90% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030??
- Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria