Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 87.1%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto3 lug 24, 20:12 UTC1 gen 51, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2040?
Manifold MarketsEvidence of life out of Earth by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessRegole
Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization
- For the purposes of this market, an "extraterrestrial civilization" is defined as any organized society or community originating from outside Earth that displays one or more of the following characteristics:
- Technological Artifacts: Objects or signals clearly created by non-human intelligence, such as advanced machinery, spacecraft, or artificial structures.
- Communication Signals: Radio, laser, or other forms of communication that unmistakably originate from an intelligent source.
- Biological Evidence: Life forms or biological signatures that demonstrate complex, organized life processes indicative of a developed society.
- Astrosocial Phenomena: Observable large-scale alterations or structures within a star system or galaxy that suggest the presence of an advanced society, such as Dyson spheres or large space habitats.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050??
- Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2051.
- Come viene liquidato Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization