Will El Niño break NOAA's all-time record? The official ONI value for Aug–Oct 2026 (record: +2.59)
MeteoOne-Off18gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale+2.60 or higher (new record) 41%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+16.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto23 ott 26, 19:24 UTC12 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Question: What value will NOAA publish for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for August–September–October 2026 (ASO 2026)?
- The ONI is NOAA's official El Niño yardstick: the 3-month average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific.
- The highest ONI ever recorded is +2.59 (NDJ 2015).
- The 1997 peak was +2.37.
- Where it stands (Oct 23): JJA 2026 = +1.80, JAS 2026 = +2.16, and the weekly Niño 3.4 readings for October are running near +3.3°C, the highest in the weekly record.
- September's monthly Niño 3.4 temperature was an all-time high per Copernicus.
