Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 91.2%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto13 ago 26, 23:51 UTC28 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Donald Trump's speech at the UN General Assembly in September 2026 last longer than 45 minutes?
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump lives to have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- John Quincy Adams' Lifespan: 29,446 days (born July 11, 1767; died February 23, 1848), which is exactly 80 years and 227 days.
- Donald Trump's Lifespan: Born on June 14, 1946, Trump will have lived 29,447 days—officially surpassing Adams—if he is alive on January 27, 2027.
- Resolution Rule: If Donald Trump is confirmed alive at any point on January 27, 2027 (in his local time zone), this market resolves to YES.
Mercati aperti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 91% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams??
- Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams? dovrebbe risolversi il 28 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria