Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 80.3%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo9 ott 26, 01:34 UTC20 gen 29, 12:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will all type of vaccines be abolished during the second Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsWill there be another covid-like pandemic during second Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsSecond Trump administration holds at least one oil/gas sale for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump or Vance mention the "light cone" in a public statement before the end of the second Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsPeak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
KalshiWhat will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if democracy in the United States is deemed to have survived the second Trump administration.
- It will resolve to NO if any of the following events occur prior to the end of the administration (scheduled for January 20, 2029):
- No Presidential Election: The United States fails to hold a nationwide presidential election during the year 2028.
- EIU Downgrade: In the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index report covering the year 2028 (typically published in early 2029), the United States' classification is downgraded to a "Hybrid regime" or "Authoritarian regime" (overall score below 6.00).
- V-Dem Downgrade: In the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute’s annual Democracy Report covering the year 2028 (typically published in early 2029), the United States is classified as either an "Electoral autocracy" or "Closed autocracy".
