Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s vote total exceed Peltola's winning margin in Alaska's Senate race?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneElezioni di metà mandato USA 20265g
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 60.6%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
31 ott 26, 05:24 UTC6 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)
KalshiSullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?
PolymarketWill Mary Peltola withdraw from the Alaska senate race?
Manifold MarketsWill Impostor Dan Sullivan finish third in the Alaska Senate election?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fake Dan Sullivan Effect the Results of the Alaska Senate Election?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in the official certified results of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election, candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s total number of votes strictly exceeds the margin of victory by which Mary Peltola defeats incumbent Dan S. Sullivan.
- The margin of victory is defined as Peltola's total votes minus Dan S. Sullivan's total votes in the decisive round that determines the winner under Alaska's ranked-choice voting tabulation (or round 1 if won outright).
- This market resolves NO if:
- Mary Peltola wins the election, but her margin of victory over Dan S. Sullivan is greater than or equal to Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s round 1 vote total (or total votes received prior to elimination).
- Mary Peltola does not win the election (i.e., Dan S. Sullivan or another candidate wins, or Peltola withdraws/is disqualified), meaning there is no winning margin for her.