Will the Fake Dan Sullivan Effect the Results of the Alaska Senate Election?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneElezioni di metà mandato USA 202630g
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 77.1%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto29 ott 26, 05:44 UTC1 dic 26, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Impostor Dan Sullivan finish third in the Alaska Senate election?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExDan J. Sullivan charged by January 31?
PolymarketSullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market is binary and resolves based on whether the presence of candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. demonstrably changes the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election according to official tabulated results from the Alaska Division of Elections.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to YES if the following conditions is satisfied:
- Ranked-Choice / Margin Outcome: Incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan does not win the election, AND the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. exceed the final margin of victory between the winning candidate and Dan S. Sullivan
- If incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan wins re-election, or if Mary Peltola (or another challenger) wins by a margin greater than the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. without an election reversal via court order, the market will resolve to NO.
- Note: The market creator may modify or clarify the numerical threshold or specific counterfactual definition before election day.
