Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 86.3%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto12 gen 26, 00:59 UTC17 ott 26, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Nobel Prize in Economics 2026
KalshiIf a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?
Manifold MarketsWill Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?
Manifold MarketsAssuming Robin Hanson is awarded the nobel prize, which of his research areas will it be related to?
Manifold MarketsNobel Prize in Literature: 2026
KalshiSuper Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030
KalshiRegole
Resolving based on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
- This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
- https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
- The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
- https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
- This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve.
Mercati aperti
Awards
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-1.0pt62.4%
- Lamine Yamal13.9%
- Kylian Mbappé+0.6pt10.9%
+28 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 375K €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ncaafheisman 26
- DMEN+2.0pt17%
- AMAN11%
- CCAR10%
+28 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 117,7K €
KALSHIThe Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
- Grand Theft Auto VI62.9%
- Resident Evil Requiem10.3%
- Control Resonant+1.0pt7.8%
+17 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
- Harry Kane+0.8pt94%
- Lamine Yamal-8.5pt77%
- Kylian Mbappé-8.0pt60%
+28 altri esiti
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Alternative
- Olivia Rodrigo-4.0pt62.1%
- twenty one pilots+5.0pt14.7%
- Noah Kahan-6.0pt9.5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,5K €
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Latin
- Shakira & Burna Boy39.8%
- Bad Bunny-2.0pt30.6%
- Anitta with Shakira25%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 19,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 994,7 €
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best K-Pop
- MTV Video Music Awards: Song of The Year
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Collaboration
- 2026 MTV Video Music Awards: Host
- MTV Video Music Awards: Video of the Year
- Grammy Winner: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Artist of The Year
- MLS: 2026 Golden Boot Winner
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Country
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Dance
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 86% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics??
- Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? dovrebbe risolversi il 17 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolving based on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.