Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 99%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto15 gen 24, 16:22 UTC2 gen 35, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?
Manifold MarketsArtemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions?
Manifold MarketsHuman moon landing in 2026?
PolymarketNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRegole
To resolve YES the mission designated Artemis 3 must involve a human footstep on the moon.
- To resolve NO Artemis 3 must be canceled or rescoped to not include a moon landing.
- Landing failure resolves NO; any failure after an astronaut walks on the moon resolves YES.
- Launch vehicle, landing vehicle, and other details are irrelevant.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing??
- Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2035.
- Come viene liquidato Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: To resolve YES the mission designated Artemis 3 must involve a human footstep on the moon.