Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 93.9%
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
3 apr 23, 21:35 UTC1 gen 31, 12:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will ICE change its name in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExWill any portion of Alberta become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRegole
Resolves to YES if any US state changes its name on or before 31 December 2030.
- A state changing its full name (like Rhode Island dropping "and the Providence Plantations") DOES count.
- New states joining do not automatically count, only if they subsequently change their name (e.g. if Washington D.C. joins as "Jefferson", that is not enough to resolve to YES).
- The name change does not need to go into force by the end of 2030, as long as it is fully approved (e.g. by a law or a ballot measure).
Mercati aperti
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
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- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
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- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will any US state change its name by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 94% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will any US state change its name by the end of 2030??
- Will any US state change its name by the end of 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will any US state change its name by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves to YES if any US state changes its name on or before 31 December 2030.