Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?
Latin AmericaOne-OffIAIntrattenimentoMusicEurope3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 72.2%
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Aggiornato 26 minuti fa
13 giu 26, 13:34 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
This market asks whether OpenAI will release or operate a model that ends up gated to the United States — by geography, residency, or nationality — while being withheld from its normal international user base.
- "Restricted to US persons" is used loosely, for intent.
- The market does not turn on the formal legal definition (citizens, green-card holders, etc.).
- What matters is that a model is gated to the US / people in the US / US residents / US nationals by law or policy, and most of OpenAI's usual foreign user base cannot use it.
- Resolves YES if OpenAI releases or operates any model (via ChatGPT, the API, or any OpenAI product) that becomes subject to a US-only restriction through any of:
- Geography — available to users accessing from within the US but withheld from a substantial share of the countries OpenAI normally serves (UK, EU, Canada, Japan, India, Australia, Brazil, etc.).
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 72% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026??
- Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market asks whether OpenAI will release or operate a model that ends up gated to the United States — by geography, residency, or nationality — while being withheld from its normal international user base.