Will any american left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations be shut down before 2050?
Operazioni societariePolitica USAOne-OffGeopoliticaPoliticaMeteoElezioneManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 05:41 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 69%
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binary
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto10 set 26, 11:54 UTC31 dic 49, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, at least one eligible American left-wing pro-democracy or pro-science organization is permanently shut down.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market:
- Eligible Organization: Must be a United States-based non-profit organization (such as a 501(c)(3) or 501(c)(4)) established before September 2026.
- The organization must be widely described by mainstream media outlets or non-partisan political tracking groups (e.g., InfluenceWatch, OpenSecrets, Media Bias/Fact Check) as having a left-leaning, progressive, or center-left political orientation, alongside a core mission focused on pro-democracy advocacy (such as voting rights, election integrity, or countering authoritarianism) and/or pro-science advocacy (such as scientific integrity, climate science advocacy, or evidence-based policymaking).
