Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?
IAOne-Off2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 97.6%
Previsori
30
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 minuti fa
29 ott 23, 03:47 UTC1 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketDeepSeek market share this week
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketRegole
See this LessWrong discussion for context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Np5Q3Mhz2AiPtejGN/we-re-not-ready-thoughts-on-pausing-and-responsible-scaling-4?commentId=dz8WsKHGFKN7YxsGX
- Anthropic has a number of security commitments in their RSP that they say they need to meet before they develop models they define as "ASL-3 models".
- This question will resolve based on whatever the consensus answer between me and Evan (Hubinger) is whether Anthropic did indeed delay scaling or developing more powerful systems for at least one month as a result of those security commitments.
- This question will resolve whenever Anthropic reaches ASL-4, or when neither me nor Evan think the answer to this is still really going to change (e.g. if Anthropic closes down, or RSPs aren't really a thing anymore, etc.).
- If me and Evan disagree I'll ask the following people (in order) to resolve this question one way or another, going down the list whenever someone doesn't respond to me in a day or so, or doesn't want to look into this: Buck Shlegeris, Nate Soares, Holden Karnofsky, Paul Christiano, Mark Xu