Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

IA Tecnologia ScienzaYearly23a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

2026 0%

In testa tra 15 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 13 ore fa

Obsoleto

11 ago 25, 16:111 gen 50, 22:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

202799%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

Trend del volume

$1.5k

20 lug6g di dati25 lug

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Regole

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

IA Tecnologia ScienzaYearly23a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

2026 0%

In testa tra 15 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 13 ore fa

Obsoleto

11 ago 25, 16:111 gen 50, 22:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

202799%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

Trend del volume

$1.5k

20 lug6g di dati25 lug

Notizie Correlate

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

Regole

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.