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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. IA
  3. Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?
Manifold Markets

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

IATecnologiaScienzaYearly23a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Manifold Markets
2026 0%
In testa tra 15 esiti
Previsori

31

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 5 giorni fa

Obsoleto
11 ago 25, 16:111 gen 50, 22:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

202721%

Regole

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

Mercati Correlati

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Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

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AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

10,6 €
Sì: 82%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will there be a Metagame 2026?

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Sì: 96.1%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

0 €
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Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

1,9K €
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Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,604.58+2.36%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.42%EthereumETH$1,650.76+1.70%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.77%BNBBNB$594.25+1.58%XRPXRP$1.12+0.22%

Notizie Correlate

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Regole

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.