Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 74.3%
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31
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto22 dic 22, 05:13 UTC1 gen 31, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will the first RISUG procedure become commercially available?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we have AGI before commercially available and viable flying cars???
Manifold MarketsWill we get commercially available flying cars before Dallas wins another super bowl?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegole
A bunch of companies, most notably Mojo, are trying to build and sell AR contact lenses.
- Will these devices succeed?
- Resolution criteria:
- The device has to be purchasable by any consumer in the US, though if there's a wait-list this still resolved YES.
- The device must be "useful".
- This will be based on my judgment, but for an example of some disqualifying things: <10m battery life, so low res it can only display a clock, etc
