Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezione
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 63.3%
Previsori
108
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto1 lug 24, 09:50 UTC2 gen 60, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
This resolves positive if a future Republican president chooses a replacement for Sonia Sotomayor.
- For example, if Trump wins the coming election, Sotomayor leaves the court in 2026, and Trump chooses her replacement, it will resolve positive.
- It resolves negative if a Democratic president chooses Sotomayor's replacement.
- It will also resolve negative if something radical happens to the structure of the Supreme Court or partisan politics that makes this question incoherent.
- This market only resolves once a nominee has been confirmed.
- If a nominee isn't confirmed, for example because the President and Senate can't agree, it will remain open until the President and Senate do agree on someone, and the party of the President whose nominee was eventually confirmed will be used to resolve this market.