Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 84.1%
Previsori
106
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto2 lug 23, 02:33 UTC1 gen 31, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Tor Parsons (Tor's Cabinet of Curiosities) publicly come out as trans by EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Donald Trump is elected, will the US become bad enough for me as a trans woman that I have to emigrate to the UK?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This market resolves YES if a Republican in office comes out as trans before 2030.
- This includes both stealth trans Republicans and closeted trans Republicans.
- This market resolves NO if no Republican who is in office comes out as trans, either on the campaign trail or after their term has completed.
- Edit: Removed the word currently to remove ambiguity and bring into better alignment with the question.
Mercati aperti
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 693K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,1 Mln €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9K €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7K €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 84% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030??
- Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves YES if a Republican in office comes out as trans before 2030.